Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 0.107025 0.120482 0.135009 0.151863 0.170887 0.191706 0.216231
2025-12-14 0.081761 0.098626 0.118145 0.142433 0.171883 0.206485 0.250305
2025-12-21 0.064337 0.082614 0.105149 0.135033 0.173716 0.222227 0.287889
2025-12-28 0.053865 0.073325 0.098778 0.134614 0.183946 0.249737 0.344595
2026-01-04 0.044467 0.063920 0.090809 0.130850 0.189258 0.271810 0.398173
2026-01-11 0.037786 0.057172 0.085402 0.129732 0.198047 0.300082 0.465452
2026-01-18 0.032856 0.052176 0.081726 0.130522 0.209749 0.334474 0.547964
2026-01-25 0.027345 0.045414 0.074341 0.124395 0.209721 0.350821 0.605043
2026-02-01 0.022715 0.039341 0.067121 0.117355 0.207009 0.362323 0.656092
2026-02-08 0.019427 0.035014 0.062140 0.113295 0.208687 0.381470 0.723907
2026-02-15 0.016640 0.031140 0.057362 0.108816 0.208845 0.397860 0.789525
2026-02-22 0.015082 0.029276 0.055919 0.110268 0.220310 0.437054 0.906255
2026-03-01 0.012979 0.026113 0.051690 0.105894 0.220139 0.454582 0.984595
2026-03-08 0.011421 0.023794 0.048762 0.103685 0.224077 0.481252 1.087950
2026-03-15 0.010095 0.021746 0.046082 0.101570 0.227901 0.508461 1.198260
2026-03-22 0.009320 0.020749 0.045443 0.103780 0.241670 0.559925 1.375210
2026-03-29 0.008388 0.019265 0.043529 0.102808 0.248002 0.595616 1.521672
2026-04-05 0.007682 0.018187 0.042364 0.103402 0.258205 0.642386 1.706037
2026-04-12 0.007131 0.017388 0.041724 0.105167 0.271653 0.699643 1.930299
2026-04-19 0.006300 0.015786 0.038933 0.101094 0.269445 0.716605 2.048423
2026-04-26 0.005520 0.014195 0.035938 0.096008 0.263689 0.723240 2.139028
2026-05-03 0.004947 0.013050 0.033903 0.093150 0.263557 0.745300 2.280128
2026-05-10 0.004418 0.011946 0.031817 0.089815 0.261513 0.761686 2.407874